Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Democrats launched a late ad campaign hitting Republican Eric Aadland, who is seeking to become first alphabetically in congressional history by last name. , Kathy Hochul, New Yorks first female governor, beat Rep. Lee Zeldin in the states closest race in decades. I cant tell you how fired up the Democratic grass roots is right now. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. Web2022 Senate. Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? Note: Based on 170 contested races. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is still a heavy favorite, but his party appears set to lose ground in California. Brian Kemp's strength at the top of the ticket makes the math slightly easier for a Republican upset. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Bidens agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. The polls just closed in Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. Current Senate Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. Nov. 8, 2022, The early vote in Arizona has been strong for Democrat Mark Kelly, but we expect a good portion of the in-person and late-counted mail vote to favor Blake Masters. In Arizona, Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated the appointed Republican incumbent, Martha McSally, while in Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker and former congressional aide, defeated Republican incumbent David Perdue, and Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, defeated appointed Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler. WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. I think its still immature. Lazaro Gamio The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, historical voting data, and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. The red wave did not materialize, and election night ended with many close races that will be decided by mail-in ballots. 2 References. . Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Lazaro Gamio Looking for Two of the biggest discrepancies between actual and predicted vote margins involved the same candidate: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. Arizonas closely watched races for Senate and governor remained too close to call in the state, where 400,000 ballots in Maricopa County await counting. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. , Greg Landsman, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios First Congressional District. GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. Yet you also acknowledge that Democrats are underwater on the economy. Web1 Predictions. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Nate Cohn Districts where the margin of victory was under 10%: Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. We rated every race in play in 2022. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. For the open Senate seat in Ohio, J.D. Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. Nate Cohn Despite a difficult environment, Gov. Alicia Parlapiano While Democrats won 94% of contests in states won by the Democratic presidential candidate, Republicans won only 86% of contests in states won by the Republican presidential candidate. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. . This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. that guide every prediction he makes. Nov. 17, 2022, The gap between the candidates for Arizona governor narrowed considerably after Nov. 8 as late absentee ballots were tallied, including ones dropped off on Election Day. Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. Web1 Predictions. Our election forecast is based on estimates for the outcomes of all Senate and House races. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. This is not a time to be defensive. All indications are that both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are planning to run for President, and we are tracking the latest polling nationally and in every state. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Nov. 10, 2022, Support for the abortion proposal was stronger than support for reelected Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, in 76 of the states 83 counties. , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. Lazaro Gamio The remaining vote there could tighten the race as it is counted. Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. Several other special elections held concurrently with the general election are included, as well as the 2017 Alabama Senate special because it was only contested once during the 2018 cycle the seat was next contested as a regular election in the 2020 cycle. Michiganders are voting on abortion rights. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. I talked with Rosenberg, who writes the Hopium Chronicles newsletter on Substack, about his optimism for 2024. RCP Gov Map Race Changes. Chris Pappas, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent New Hampshires First Congressional District. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote, Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base which is good! Louisiana the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. Seth Magaziner, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Rhode Islands Second Congressional District. All rights reserved. Here are the states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah. However, with the current breakdown of the Democratic Party, that is vested in the hands of the Democrat senator from West Virginia Joe Manchin. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. . Lazaro Gamio Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Im Fivey Fox! Follow the latest election results here , Ga. Mourdock gained national notoriety for his comment that when a woman becomes pregnant as a result of rape, it is something that God intended, and went on to lose the general election to a moderate Democrat, Joe Donnelly. In 2022, we saw Democrats grow their vote percentages in seven battleground states. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. Ohio. Nov. 9, 2022, Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. This finding indicates that Republican candidates have underperformed in Senate elections relative to what we would have expected based on state presidential partisanship, incumbency, and election type. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Things have changed in this race since when I first rated it. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. In the 2020 election cycle, 66% of the voters voted for Biden while 68.5% of the voters voted for Republican Governor Phil Scott. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. Nov. 9, 2022, House districts rated as tossups have been called mostly in favor of Democrats so far, with one state as a glaring exception: New York. Theres an enormous amount to work with here. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. Overall, incumbents won 87% of their races. Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. Christine Zhang We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. All rights reserved. Beyond the wins and losses, another prominent aspect of recent Senate elections is the overall lack of competition. An even greater discrepancy between predicted and actual results occurred in the 2017 Alabama special election in which ultra-conservative former state Supreme Court justice Roy Moore won a runoff primary against appointed incumbent Luther Strange to win the Republican nomination. Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Democrats have the potential to flip 6 seats in the Senate in 2022. RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and on average,it was closer to the final resultthan the traditional gold standard, Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. NV ) Create Your Own Map. Jason Kao Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. , Gov. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. Nov. 10, 2022, As of noon Eastern time, Democrats have won 190 House seats, Republicans have won 208, and 37 are still undecided. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. Albert Sun We also have a Live Forecast for the House. Explore the full list of Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. Lazaro Gamio In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. WebRacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. Adjusted Poll Average. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. * Candidates need more than 50% of the total vote to win outright, which is reflected in the win probabilities. but if its not done with empathy and tact it risks outrunning the vast middle part of the country, which progressive activists seem completely uninterested in talking to. Our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D). Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. Nov. 10, 2022, In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. , Don Bacon, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nebraskas Second Congressional District. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. U.S. House Calif. 3 R+3 36% Calif. 9 D+17 Nate Cohn With the 2022 midterms just hours away, Senate races in the countrys battleground states look closer than ever. In contrast, predictions for races with predicted margins of 10 points or more were correct over 95% of the time. Voters in Kentucky will decide whether to approve an amendment that would reject abortion rights in the State Constitution. Georgias Senate race might culminate in a runoff election on Dec. 6 if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. The final forecast lists six Toss Up races, one more than two years ago. For the final pre-election results projection, click here. Senate Projection. 1.2 Close races. . In North Carolinas Senate race, Representative Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, is very likely to win, according to our estimates. , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. Even though Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in all 3 presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential candidates carried 93 of the 174 states with Senate contests during these years a success rate of just over 53%. Nov. 8, 2022, Senator Raphael Warnock is out with an early lead in Georgia, but it could all be just a mirage. Nate Cohn We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Which gives us far more running room to go contest it. That could all change Tuesday. The results are displayed in Table 5. Source: Data compiled by author. (Disclosure: hes a friend.) In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. Its my view that the energy that generated this anti-woke boomlet on the right is dissipating. Maggie Astor The facts are that the country is better off. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. The most competitive races, with predicted margins of under 5 points, are expected to be in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Heres where we think votes remain. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. The other interesting finding in Table 3 is that the large majority of erroneous predictions, 12 of 16, involved Democratic victories in contests that Republicans were expected to win.
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